League Statistics
Luck, GM skill, and draft-slot fortune — toggle by era.
Luck
Did you win more than your scoring earned? Positive = lucky, negative = robbed.
How luck is calculated
Luck = actual wins − expected wins. It answers: did you win more games than your scoring earned?
Each regular-season week, your score is compared not just to your one opponent, but to every other team that played that week. Beating 7 of 9 teams is worth 7/9 of a win. Summed across the season, that's your expected wins — what your scoring actually deserved against the whole field.
Subtract that from your real record: a positive score means you won more than you earned — weak opponents, low points-against, close games going your way. A negative score means you scored well but kept losing — a brutal schedule or bad beats.
It's zero-sum: every lucky win is someone else's unlucky loss, so league-wide luck nets to zero each season. Full seasons only (mid-season ownership handoffs are excluded).
🍀 Luckiest seasons
| Manager | Year | Record | Earned | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh | 2021 | 10-3 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| Dmart | 2020 | 10-3 | 6.7 | +3.3 |
| Charlie | 2023 | 9-5 | 5.7 | +3.3 |
| Jack | 2016 | 6-7 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
| Josh | 2018 | 9-4 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
| Brett | 2020 | 7-6 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| Charlie | 2025 | 8-6 | 5.5 | +2.5 |
| John | 2019 | 9-4 | 6.9 | +2.1 |
| Dulaban | 2017 | 8-5 | 5.9 | +2.1 |
| Charlie | 2024 | 8-6 | 5.9 | +2.1 |
| Frank | 2021 | 8-5 | 6 | +2 |
| Blake | 2021 | 10-3 | 8 | +2 |
| Connor | 2016 | 7-6 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
| John | 2018 | 7-6 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| Frank | 2015 | 8-5 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
🪦 Unluckiest seasons
| Manager | Year | Record | Earned | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John | 2020 | 2-11 | 5 | -3 |
| Dmart | 2025 | 2-12 | 5 | -3 |
| Austin | 2021 | 4-9 | 6.9 | -2.9 |
| Jeremy 'Tator Tot Casserole' | 2015 | 6-7 | 8.6 | -2.6 |
| Jeremy 'Tator Tot Casserole' | 2016 | 6-7 | 8.5 | -2.5 |
| Dulaban | 2016 | 4-9 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| Dulaban | 2021 | 2-11 | 4.4 | -2.4 |
| Dmart | 2017 | 5-8 | 7.1 | -2.1 |
| Dmart | 2023 | 4-10 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| Dillon | 2016 | 3-10 | 4.9 | -1.9 |
| Frank | 2013 | 7-6 | 8.8 | -1.8 |
| Dmart | 2024 | 3-11 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| John | 2017 | 5-8 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| Dmart | 2014 | 2-10-1 | 4.1 | -1.6 |
| Blake | 2016 | 5-8 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
Finish luck — deserved finish (by all-play strength) vs where they actually ended up, playoff run included.
🍀 Luckiest finishes
| Manager | Year | Deserved | Finished | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank | 2021 | 9th | 1st | ▲8 |
| Jack | 2016 | 12th | 6th | ▲6 |
| Frank | 2015 | 8th | 3rd | ▲5 |
| Jeremy 'Tator Tot Casserole' | 2017 | 10th | 5th | ▲5 |
| Josh | 2018 | 7th | 2nd | ▲5 |
| Dmart | 2020 | 7th | 2nd | ▲5 |
| Charlie | 2023 | 10th | 5th | ▲5 |
| Brett | 2016 | 7th | 3rd | ▲4 |
| Brett | 2020 | 11th | 7th | ▲4 |
| Josh | 2021 | 8th | 4th | ▲4 |
| Massón | 2021 | 10th | 6th | ▲4 |
| Frank | 2023 | 12th | 8th | ▲4 |
| Massón | 2025 | 6th | 2nd | ▲4 |
| Dillon | 2011 | 8th | 5th | ▲3 |
| Josh | 2013 | 9th | 6th | ▲3 |
🪦 Unluckiest finishes
| Manager | Year | Deserved | Finished | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy 'Tator Tot Casserole' | 2015 | 1st | 11th | ▼10 |
| Brett | 2023 | 4th | 11th | ▼7 |
| Jeremy 'Tator Tot Casserole' | 2016 | 3rd | 9th | ▼6 |
| Dmart | 2017 | 5th | 11th | ▼6 |
| Austin | 2020 | 5th | 10th | ▼5 |
| Brett | 2021 | 3rd | 8th | ▼5 |
| Dulaban | 2018 | 5th | 9th | ▼4 |
| Jack | 2021 | 1st | 5th | ▼4 |
| Austin | 2021 | 6th | 10th | ▼4 |
| Josh | 2011 | 7th | 10th | ▼3 |
| Frank | 2014 | 1st | 4th | ▼3 |
| Connor | 2015 | 4th | 7th | ▼3 |
| Dulaban | 2016 | 8th | 11th | ▼3 |
| Connor | 2017 | 1st | 4th | ▼3 |
| Brett | 2019 | 5th | 8th | ▼3 |
Across all seasons — does someone always overachieve their deserved finish? (min 3 seasons)
🎲 Finish luck by manager
| Manager | Seasons | Avg deserved | Avg finish | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie | 4 | 7.3 | 5 | +2.3 |
| Massón | 8 | 7.4 | 6.6 | +0.8 |
| Frank | 15 | 5.7 | 5.1 | +0.7 |
| Jack | 10 | 5.3 | 4.6 | +0.7 |
| Blake | 14 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 |
| Dillon | 7 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| John | 15 | 5.5 | 5.4 | +0.1 |
| Josh | 15 | 6.9 | 6.8 | +0.1 |
| Austin | 12 | 5.6 | 5.5 | +0.1 |
| Orry | 5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | -0.2 |
| Connor | 15 | 5.3 | 5.5 | -0.2 |
| Dmart | 15 | 7.3 | 7.6 | -0.3 |
| Dulaban | 8 | 7.5 | 8.3 | -0.7 |
| Brett | 12 | 5.5 | 6.2 | -0.7 |
| Jeremy 'Tator Tot Casserole' | 15 | 6.7 | 8.1 | -1.4 |
GM rankings
How much each manager's acquisitions out-scored the typical one of that kind. Positive = beats the field.
How these rankings are calculated
Each ranking asks one question: did this manager's picks / adds / trades score more than a typical one of the same kind? The number is the average points above (+) or below (−) that baseline, per acquisition.
🎯 Drafters — every pick is measured against the average points scored at that exact overall draft slot (across the selected era). This matters because the worst team picks first every year, so raw points would crown bad teams as great drafters. Comparing to the slot strips that out and leaves draft skill.
📈 Waiver adds & 🔁 Trades — there's no draft slot, so each acquired player is measured against the average add / trade at the same position. A streamed kicker isn't judged against a drafted QB, and the scale centers at 0 — positive means your adds/trades beat a typical one.
Sample minimums — a manager needs at least 15 drafted picks, 8 adds, or 3 trades to appear, so small-sample flukes don't top the board. All three tables follow the era toggle above.
Two honest caveats:
- A drafted player's points count for the drafter even if they were later dropped or traded away — this measures whether you identified talent, which is the point of drafting.
- The trade metric only sees players you acquired, not what you gave up — so it's "quality of players traded for," not net trade profit. The data doesn't link the two sides of a deal.
🎯 Best drafters
📈 Best waiver adds
Draft slot luck — first-round snake slot vs. how that manager finished. Slot is drawn at random each year, so this is history, not an edge. Ranked by average finish (best first).
🎰 Draft slot luck
| Rank | Slot | Avg finish | Avg pts rank | Titles | Top-3 | Bottom-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 | 9 | 4th (4.40) | 5.6 | 🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 | 53% | 13% |
| 2 | 3 | 5th (4.67) | 5.2 | 🏆 | 33% | 0% |
| 3 | 6 | 5th (4.87) | 5.7 | 🏆🏆 | 40% | 13% |
| 4 | 2 | 6th (5.73) | 6.4 | 🏆 | 27% | 20% |
| 5 | 5 | 6th (5.87) | 5.9 | 🏆🏆 | 27% | 20% |
| 6 | 4 | 6th (6.00) | 6.1 | — | 20% | 20% |
| 7 | 8 | 6th (6.47) | 5.6 | 🏆 | 27% | 27% |
| 8 | 11 | 7th (6.73) | 6.9 | — | 18% | 36% |
| 9 | 12 | 7th (7.36) | 6.6 | — | 27% | 27% |
| 10 | 1 | 8th (7.60) | 6.3 | 🏆 | 13% | 53% |
| 11 | 7 | 8th (7.60) | 6.9 | — | 13% | 40% |
| 💀 | 10 | 8th (8.33) | 8.3 | 🏆🏆 | 13% | 47% |
Avg pts rank = average regular-season scoring rank within each season (1 = top scorer). Top-3 / Bottom-3 = share of seasons finishing in the top or bottom three.
